Mental Math & Bayesian Statistics

I have seen mental math discussed on this forum.

I would love to be able to do simple Bayesian statistics all in my head.
i.e. given these priors, there is an X likelihood this will happen - this can be updated by a sample size of Y to Z likelihood. (Sort of like Mr. Spock).

I have ZERO idea about where to start. Any guidance would be greatly appreciated.

–Luke

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